Polymarket Pursues Full U.S. Return Through CFTC Approval Talks

Polymarket is pursuing a regulatory pathway to reopen its main prediction markets platform to users in the United States, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter. The development would signal a broader US re-entry for the firm, following a limited return last year via a regulated QCEX-based setup that still blocks American users from the main exchange.

The contemplated relaunch hinges on obtaining approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lift the long-standing prohibition on US-based customers. A full reinstatement would require a formal CFTC commission vote. Bloomberg noted that the process could be facilitated by four vacant commissioner seats, potentially reducing the number of votes needed to advance the matter.

The move comes against a backdrop of heightened regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets in the United States, where rivals such as Kalshi have established a stronger domestic footprint even as the sector faces ongoing enforcement and legal questions at both state and federal levels. Polymarket’s potential US comeback would, if successful, intensify competition in a market that regulators closely monitor for compliance with registration, licensing, and consumer-protection standards.

Polymarket declined to comment to Cointelegraph about the Bloomberg report.

Key takeaways

• Polymarket is seeking CFTC clearance to restore full US access to its main prediction markets platform, a move that would require a formal vote by the agency’s commissioners.
• The bid follows the 2022 CFTC settlement, which forced Polymarket to block US users and imposed a $1.4 million civil penalty for unregistered event contracts.
• A complete US relaunch would contribute to competition with Kalshi, which has gained traction domestically and holds relationships with major crypto platforms such as Coinbase.
• US enforcement activity and state actions remain a material risk for Polymarket and other prediction platforms, including ongoing lawsuits and investigations into the use of event contracts for gambling or illegal betting.
• Polymarket’s US operations have progressed only gradually, with a late-2025 comeback that began with a waitlist-based app focused on sports contracts, followed by broader market ambitions.

Regulatory backdrop and potential implications for US operations

The regulatory framework governing prediction markets in the United States rests primarily with the CFTC, which regulates commodity and derivative instruments and enforces registration and anti-fraud provisions. Polymarket’s 2022 settlement underscores the risk profile for platforms offering event-based contracts to US residents without appropriate registration or oversight. A formal CFTC vote to lift the ban would represent a significant legal milestone that could determine whether Polymarket can operate its core exchange in the United States on par with international platforms.

The transition would also intersect with broader policy considerations around digital markets, consumer protection, and financial innovation. While MiCA governs EU-based crypto-asset activities and has implications for cross-border services, the US approach remains characterized by federal agency actions and state-level enforcement. For market participants, the outcome could influence licensing strategies, KYC/AML controls, and compliance architectures required to service US customers at scale.

As regulators continue to scrutinize prediction markets, any relaunch would be weighed against enforcement history and ongoing legal challenges. Reports indicate that Wisconsin’s top law enforcement official filed a lawsuit on April 23 against Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside other firms such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, alleging that these platforms facilitate illegal sports betting through event contracts. Separately, federal authorities—the CFTC and the Department of Justice—have pursued cases related to the use of event contracts in ways that may contravene US restrictions, including allegations tied to a US service member using non-public information to place bets on Polymarket’s international exchange via VPN access. These actions illustrate the current enforcement environment that any relaunch would navigate.

In practice, a successful US relaunch would necessitate robust licensing frameworks, rigorous consumer protections, and clear delineations of which markets fall under securities, commodities, or other regulatory categories. The interagency dynamics—encompassing the CFTC, the DOJ, and state authorities—would shape the pace and scope of any permitted activities. For exchanges and banks evaluating partnerships or custody arrangements, the decision to re-enter the US market would hinge on the ability to demonstrate compliant operations across borders and to manage enforcement risk effectively.

Market dynamics, performance, and enforcement risk in the US landscape

Polymarket’s position in the US prediction-market landscape has evolved alongside regulatory pressure. The platform previously accounted for the majority of activity in the field, but its dominance has come under pressure from a growing competitor base and heightened scrutiny. A Dune-derived assessment cited on Datadashboards suggested Polymarket once captured a substantial share of notional volume, though subsequent scrutiny of volume reporting has prompted questions about measurement and methodology. Meanwhile, Kalshi has expanded its domestic footprint and secured integration with major platforms, contributing to a more competitive environment for compliant prediction-market operators.

Despite higher visibility for Kalshi, Polymarket remains entangled in enforcement scrutiny that spans both federal and state channels. The Wisconsin action is indicative of a broader regulatory push against “event contracts” that resemble sports betting, highlighting the risk of civil actions that could affect platform viability and investor confidence. In parallel, ongoing investigations into cross-border activity—coupled with combatting unregistered contracts—underscore the regulatory challenges that accompany any attempt to relaunch the main US exchange at scale.

From a compliance perspective, the reintroduction of Polymarket into the US market would demand rigorous AML/KYC controls, transparent disclosures regarding contract types and settlement mechanisms, and robust risk-management measures to monitor for potential abuse or manipulation. For institutional observers, the development raises questions about licensing pathways, the consistency of state-by-state enforcement, and the potential for harmonized standards across multiple jurisdictions as digital prediction markets continue to mature.

Historical context and what a US relaunch would entail

Polymarket’s US trajectory has long been conditioned by regulatory decisions. The 2022 settlement setting a cap on the company’s US operations was a pivotal turning point, creating a permanent constraint that any broader US return must address. The company’s late-2025 comeback, characterized by a limited, waitlisted US app rolled out with sports-focused contracts, represented a cautious, incremental approach—intended to test compliance readiness while rebuilding user trust and infrastructure. A broader relaunch would require not only regulatory clearance but also scalable compliance programs, clear product classifications, and a plan to align with evolving enforcement expectations.

Against this backdrop, competition with Kalshi—already a domestic market leader and a recognized provider for major crypto exchange Coinbase—takes on strategic significance. A successful US relaunch for Polymarket could expand the range of state- and federally regulated offerings available to institutions seeking hedging tools or research data, while simultaneously increasing the regulatory and operational complexity for market participants who rely on these platforms for legitimate, compliant risk assessment.

Closing perspective

Any decision to lift the US ban and authorize Polymarket’s main exchange would represent a meaningful inflection point for the prediction-market ecosystem, with broad implications for licensing, cross-border operations, and enforcement alignment. As regulators, industry players, and market participants monitor evolving developments, the path forward will hinge on clear regulatory clarity, robust compliance infrastructure, and demonstrated adherence to applicable laws and standards. The coming months will clarify whether a formal CFTC vote materializes and how policymakers balance innovation with consumer protection and market integrity.