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FED November’s meeting minutes: what are the expectations?
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FED November’s meeting minutes: what are the expectations?

US indices went up overall yesterday. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at +1.36%.

The positive upward move has been driven by the forecast sales of the big retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods and Best Buy, which will not fall as much as expected.

Today’s focus is on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting: the expectation is that the consensus over higher interest rates is increasing.

At the beginning of this month, Jerome Powell said that rates have to go higher than the central bank’s quarterly projections in September, from 4.5% to 4.75%.

Investors see rates topping at around 5% in 2023, based on the pricing in money markets.

 

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Chart

The S&P 500 price is still trading inside the ascending channel, since the beginning of October.

The support at 3900 has been held in the past few days. The price closed yesterday above the 4000 psychological level.

This is a bullish sign, therefore we can expect the index price to rise to the range between 4048 and 4100, respectively the 200-day MA (green moving average) and the trend line of the bear market.

If the price can break above 200-day MA, it would be a very bullish signal that will push prices even higher and the market could flip potentially to a bull market.

The RSI remains at 61, indicating a Bullish trend.

 

Market Sentiment – Fear & Greed Index

 

The market sentiment remains in the “Greed” mode, at 62, exactly the same level as yesterday.



 

FedWatch Tool – FED rates probabilities

 

75.8% of investors are expecting the FED to increase the interest rates by 0.50% in the next meeting.

The remaining 24.2% are expecting a 0.75% rate increase.

The data show us that the number of investors expecting an increase of 0.75% is higher than a week ago.

No other options are considered at this stage.

The next FED meeting is on 14 December 2022.

 

Portfolio Update

Overall, the majority of my positions are bullish (LONG). I have a few short positions opened recently that I am monitoring and waiting for the right time to close or I could add more shorts if the price reverts to the downside.

Right now I am neutral on the stock market, as the price can go in any direction in the short term.

I am keeping my risk score low and I have some cash available on balance to use for new trades.

If you are already copying my portfolio, please keep the copy open.

If you are thinking of copying me, now could be the right time, if you can invest for the long term (years).

Remember to copy the open trades to optimize the copy.

Remember to set the stop loss on the copy at the minimum level, so you don’t get stopped if there is a correction.

Thank you, everyone. Have a nice day!

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1. Create an eToro account here: https://federicamontella.com/go/etoro/

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Let me know if you have any questions.

 

Federica Montella

eToro Popular Investor

 

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The post FED November’s meeting minutes: what are the expectations? appeared first on Federica Montella.

Source: FedericaMontella.com

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