What’s the Bitcoin Pi Cycle bottom indicator?
Dubbed “Pi Cycle bottom,” the indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market’s bottom.
Notably, each time the 150-period EMA has fallen below the 471-period SMA, it has marked the end of a Bitcoin bear market.
Similarly, the second 150-471 MA crossover in history marked the end of the 2018 bear cycle. It also followed a 2,000% price rally — from nearly $3,200 in December 2018 to $69,000 in November 2021.
Only the third time in history
This week, Bitcoin’s 150-day EMA (at $32,332 as of July 12) is set to close below its 471-day EMA (at $32,208), thus logging the third Pi Cycle bottom in its history.
The crossover appears as Bitcoin wobbles around $20,000, after a 75%-plus price correction from its peak level of $69,000.
The fears emerge due to an ongoing crypto market carnage led by the failure of several high-profile companies.
Meanwhile, hawkish central bank policies that focus on removing excess cash from the economy have also spooked investors.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin could rebound to at least $30,000 if the given bottom fractal plays out. The interim upside target coincides with the 0.236 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $69,000-swing high to the $17,000-swing low, as shown in the chart above.
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