PlanB: Business as usual for BTC
“$288K still in play,” PlanB retorted.
“It would really surprise me if bitcoin would not touch the black S2FX model line this phase. Regardless of current volatility, yellow green and blue dots will be (much) higher than red orange dots.”
Such “surprise” would provide a serious test for the model, which has so far charted Bitcoin’s growth with unique precision.
The $288,000 price tag refers to an average value called for by the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) iteration, while a previous version requires a more modest $100,000 average. Both are based on the current halving cycle, a four-year period between block subsidy halvings due to end in April 2024.
Earlier, Cointelegraph noted that spot price deviation from S2F readings has reached levels which normally see a rebound and a new all-time high.
In additional comments, PlanB noted that 2021 really did fit with behavior from other all-time high years — 2013 and 2017 — further quashing suggestions that Bitcoin is facing serious problems.
“Deviation is not much different from 2013 (S2F ~10) or 2017 (S2F ~25), just the usual inertia after a halving,” he told Twitter users.
Bitcoin has a “bullish ace up its sleeve”
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has added to the upbeat mood over the power of the halvings.
Due in November, Taproot provides a host of improvements which will, among other things, make it cheaper to use some key features such as multisignature transactions.